Will the Outcome of the Presidential Election Impact the Stock Market? #225
The 2024 election is just days away, and soon you'll have your final chance to cast your vote. With so much at stake, many are anxious about how the markets might respond based on who takes the White House. In this episode of Retire with Ryan, I’ll dive into what we could expect from a Trump or Harris presidency—and explain why, no matter the outcome, it shouldn't drastically change your investment strategy.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
[2:37] The state of the Presidential election
[6:00] How the stock market is impacted
[6:50] How will a Harris presidency impact the market?
[8:01] How will a Trump presidency impact the market?
[12:57] Nothing will fundamentally change how you invest
The state of the Presidential election
When Trump initially faced Biden, his campaign held a noticeable lead, especially as Biden struggled in the debates. But when Kamala Harris stepped in as the Democratic nominee, the momentum shifted. Now, with less than a week to go, betting markets show Trump with a 65% chance of victory.
But who wins the House and Senate may matter more. Even if Trump or Harris takes the presidency, they'll need congressional support to pass meaningful legislation.
Right now, the outlook suggests a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. A split Congress will make it difficult for either party to push through major policy changes along partisan lines. If Harris can’t secure Pennsylvania’s electoral votes, it will be tough for her to clinch the presidency.
How will a Harris or Trump presidency impact the market?
Historically, the stock market moves sideways during the third quarter of an election year due to uncertainty. But 2024 has defied that trend—the market has performed exceptionally well. This suggests that investors are betting on minimal disruption, likely because a split Congress seems inevitable.
A Harris Presidency: Potential Market Impact
Green Energy Boom: Expect continued subsidies for electric vehicles and solar energy, giving a boost to green stocks.
Support for Housing: Policies aimed at increasing housing supply and offering home-buying tax credits could benefit homebuilders.
Tariff Stability: A Harris administration would likely avoid raising tariffs, favoring emerging markets and foreign stocks.
A Trump Presidency: Market Implications
Tariff Tensions with China: Higher tariffs could hurt Chinese stocks, shifting opportunities to other regions.
Regulatory Rollbacks: Trump is likely to reduce stock market regulations, which could boost financial markets.
Energy Focus: Oil, natural gas, and energy independence would be back on the agenda, benefiting traditional energy stocks.
Electric Car Incentives at Risk: While tax credits for electric vehicles could be removed, Trump’s close ties with Tesla may keep certain policies favorable.
Small Cap Stocks and Antitrust: Republicans tend to enforce antitrust laws, which could weaken large tech companies and create opportunities for small caps.
Japan as a Trade Partner: If tensions rise with China, Japan could become a key business ally.
Nothing will fundamentally change how you invest. What does that mean? Hear my thoughts in this episode of Retire with Ryan.
Resources Mentioned
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